The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am's final round is set to be a thrilling spectacle, with Mother Nature's forecast playing a pivotal role. As the players gear up for the fourth round, the question on everyone's mind is: who will emerge victorious in the face of the challenging weather conditions?
The early bird gets the worm, or in this case, the wind. Players who teed off earlier faced a different golf course compared to the final groups, dodging sustained winds that reached 23 mph with stronger gusts along the coastline. The 54-hole leader, Akshay Bhatia, opened with six birdies through his first seven holes, reaching 2-under through nine before the conditions shifted. Bhatia's back nine was a different story, as he played it in 2-over, settling for a 4-under round and a two-shot lead heading into Sunday.
Collin Morikawa, on the other hand, made the most of calmer conditions in Round 3, posting a 10-under 62 while hitting all 18 greens in regulation. This marks just the third time in his PGA TOUR career that he has hit every green in regulation in a round. Morikawa now sits two shots back and is in position to secure his first victory since the 2023 ZOZO Championship, where he closed with a 63 to win by six shots.
But here's where it gets controversial: the forecast for Round 4 is set to be a game-changer. The PGA TOUR has moved tee times up, with players going off in threesomes from both tees, anticipating worsening conditions throughout the day. Early forecasts project winds between 6 and 12 mph with a 25% chance of rain. By noon, the probability of precipitation rises to 35% with sustained winds between 10 and 20 mph and gusts approaching 30 mph. Those numbers are expected to increase as the afternoon progresses.
Pebble Beach has played slightly under par throughout the week, but that can change quickly when the wind begins to move in off the Pacific. If conditions worsen as expected, the course could trend closer to even par or potentially over par for the late wave. Round scoring markets at Pebble have largely been posted between 68.5 and 69.5 this week. If similar numbers are offered for Sunday's afternoon groups, there is likely value on overs. If the course begins to play closer to half a stroke over par, the field average moves toward 71, creating a meaningful margin relative to those numbers.
There are also placement opportunities tied to the wave advantage. Golfers with earlier tee times will play in winds between 6 and 12 mph compared to sustained winds nearing 20 mph later in the day with gusts approaching 30 mph. That type of discrepancy often creates separation on the leaderboard as the day progresses.
Two statistical buckets stand out entering Sunday. The first is performance under extreme wind conditions. Over the last 36 rounds played in heavy wind, the following players were the highest performing:
Strokes Gained: Total
1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Shane Lowry
4. Corey Conners
5. Collin Morikawa
6. Wyndham Clark
Temperature is also expected to play a role, with conditions projected in the mid-50s.
Strokes Gained: Total Temperature between 44-57 degrees Last 36 Rounds
1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Nick Taylor
4. Shane Lowry
5. Daniel Berger
6. Ludvig Åberg
Shane Lowry, Top 10 (+220 FanDuel)
Shane Lowry's profile sets up well for a push into the top 10 on Sunday for several reasons. He finished runner-up here last season, gaining +4.9 strokes putting across the week, but it is not just course history that has me excited. Lowry enters the final round at 11 under and sits one shot outside the top 10, firmly within striking distance if conditions become more challenging.
His game is suited for rounds that demand a lower apex and more control around the greens. Over the last 36 rounds played in extreme wind, Lowry ranks third in this field in Strokes Gained: Total, gaining +1.63 strokes per round.
Lowry has played well. He posted a 5-under 67 in Round 3 to move up the leaderboard and has gained +1.16 strokes on approach and another +0.68 strokes putting through three rounds.
With Sunday's forecast possible to level the morning and afternoon rounds, Lowry is a golfer I need to bet on.
Collin Morikawa to Win (+490)
Winning a golf tournament in heavy wind is never simple. Especially for a golfer trying to hold onto a two-stroke lead in tough conditions. Bhatia ranks outside the top 40 in windy conditions over his last 36 rounds, while Morikawa ranks fifth and is gaining +1.42 strokes per round. Morikawa has gained more than +3.5 strokes in ball-striking this week and has impressed everywhere but on the greens.
Morikawa has lost strokes putting in nine of his last 10 events entering this week. However, if he can remain near neutral on the greens, as he did in Round 3 when he lost just 0.01 strokes putting while shooting 62, his approach play gives him a realistic opportunity to win on Sunday.
Collin Morikawa birdies final hole to card 62 at AT&T Pebble Beach
Round 4 Three Ball: Russell Henley over Sami Valimaki and Tony Finau (-104)
Henley ranks inside the top 20 in this field in Strokes Gained: Total in windy conditions over his last 36 rounds and sits less than 0.28 strokes outside the top 10 in that category. While execution has varied this week, he has still gained 0.5 strokes total through three rounds and 1.05 strokes putting. Both Valimaki and Finau have historically struggled in heavy wind, which makes Henley’s price an option for the three-ball market.
